Reserve floors under two quiet stress sketches

Dramatic scenario theatre has a way of taking over a room. On our desk we prefer two sketches agreed in the first fifteen minutes of a reserve balance mapping workshop.

Sketch A — spot sleeve softens

We mark a round decline in the spot sleeve — not a fantasy wipeout, just enough movement that someone would notice in a monthly pack. Then we ask: does the reserve floor still clear the policy line once stablecoin float is treated as partly unavailable?

Sketch B — float is busy

Settlement week arrives. Stablecoin balances that looked idle are committed. The reserve line may not move on paper, but the practical buffer shrinks. The sketch simply makes that shrink visible beside the spot sleeve.

What we refuse to sketch

We do not invent black-swan theatre or imply predictive skill. The point is narrower: if the floor only works when float is frozen and spot is calm, it is not yet a floor — it is a hope.

Clients who need the full three-sleeve picture usually book allocation planning first, then return for a reserve workshop once the diagram exists.